Indie Telco Local Content Workshop Information

The Independent Telco Space According to Viodi

by Ken Pyle, Viodi, LLC (ken.pyle@viodi.com)

 


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August 18th, 2004 Issue

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This article provides some summary market figures for the independent telcos video (cable television) offerings. These numbers are derived from Viodi’s database and are intended to represent the general market size. It is almost an impossible task to keep the database up-to-date, due to the large numbers of telcos, the constant addition of new services and the occasional merger. In other words, don’t bet your life on the numbers that are provided, but they should provide a good approximation for the market size.

If anything, the database undercounts the total number of telcos offering video. One reason for the undercount is that there are only approximately 1,050 telcos in the Viodi database. Reports have suggested that there may be from 1,200 to 1,400 independent telcos in the United States. Another indication that the numbers are conservative is OPASTCO’s survey suggesting that half their members provide video services…this would imply 275 telcos in their universe are currently providing cable services.

If the OPASTCO ratio was extended to the entire industry, it would mean 600 to 700 telcos provide video services. This seems a bit high, based on what I have seen in the nine years of building the Viodi database.

Another indication that the Viodi database is conservative is the bit of a work done in the last few days to account for new video service offerings. This effort has increased the number of telcos that are confirmed to be video providers by approximately ten percent.

As far as the numbers from Viodi’s database:

  • 307 telcos supply video (cable television) via coax, hybrid fiber coax, xDSL or Fiber to the home. Again, based on the above factors, my gut feel is that this number is probably more like 350 to 400.
  • 77 telcos are supplying video over DSL (ADSL or VDSL). The majority of these are still ATM, although IP seems to be rapidly gaining. I suspect this number is a bit low and is probably more like 100 telcos supplying video services over xDSL.
  • 23 telcos are supplying video over Fiber to the Home. Again, this number is conservative and should probably be bumped up to 30 to 40. One of the things that impressed me at the California Telephone Association was the number of independent telcos that are planning on deploying FTTH in Greenfield deployments, regardless of whether or not they currently offer video services.

Lastly, it is important to note that the independent telcos often have overlapping technologies and could embrace IP over xDSL, FTTH, while having an HFC system for areas outside of their traditional exchange area.

I am curious to hear of others’ estimates for the size of the independent telco market. Please let us know by emailing us, iocmarketsize@viodi.com.

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